Liberal democracy after the Good Change: the challenges of post-PiS reform in Poland

Abstract:

The October 2023 elections in Poland saw the populist-nativist Law and Justice (PiS) removed from power after eight years of democratic backsliding. Given the success of an explicitly pro-democratic umbrella coalition in mobilising the largest turnout since Poland’s transition to democracy, this result was hailed as a resounding victory for liberal democracy. However, the new government has faced the onerous task of repairing the damage visited upon Poland’s liberal-democratic institutions in conditions where the necessary haste may raise the risk of violating the very principles it aims to restore. An increasingly frustrated Donald Tusk has spoken of needing to reach for the tools of militant democracy, encouraged by radical re-liberalisers who are disenchanted with the slow pace of reform. What risks might this situation create for Poland? In this presentation, I first outline the constraints faced by the government in the form of a “post-illiberal trilemma”. I then explain why public attitudes to liberal democracy threaten to exacerbate the difficulties of governing among such constraints, drawing on a three-wave panel survey conducted in April 2023, October 2023 and April 2024. The findings of this survey indicate that while supporters of the governing coalition remain in an overall sense more committed to liberal democracy than supporters of PiS, they are less likely to oppose breaches of liberal-democratic norms now that their favoured parties are in power. Conversely, PiS supporters have become less opposed to liberal democracy, while still remaining on balance sceptical. These results raise the possibility of a new post-PiS equilibrium in which governing elites face declining pressures to pursue genuine reform, and in which key liberal-democratic institutions — in particular the judiciary and public media — become sites of revolving political contestation rather than reverting to the imperfectly neutral institutions of the pre-2015 era.

 

When: Wednesday, 11th December 2024, 16:45

Where: Online & Konferenzraum, Department for Political Science, NIG, 2nd floor, Universitätsstraße 7, 1010 Vienna

Speaker: Ben Stanley (SWPS University)
Moderation: Visnja Vukov (Department of Political Science, University of Vienna)

For participation via zoom, please contact: lina.ehrich@univie.ac.at